Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for it. Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he accumulates. But supposing the reference became available to everyone? Bret Cahill
Phase Sensitive Detector for Equities
Started by ●September 23, 2011
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
On Sep 23, 11:19�am, Bret Cahill <Bret_E_Cah...@yahoo.com> wrote:> Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so > they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for > it. > > Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin > to a reference. �The more he integrates over time the more wealth he > accumulates. > > But supposing the reference became available to everyone? > > Bret CahillNot sure what your question is. One school of thinking based on the efficient market hypothesis would say that there can be no privately- known reference; asset prices at any given time reflect all information that would affect their value (this is certainly ripe for debate with respect to insider trading). In the case where your reference became available to everyone, any advantage to be had by using it would disappear. A summary conclusion of the hypothesis is that that over the long term, you can't beat average market returns when your returns are adjusted for the risk that you take on. Not saying that the EMH is true, just presenting one potential outcome of your scenario. Jason
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
Bret Cahill wrote:> Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so > they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for > it. > > Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin > to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he > accumulates. > > But supposing the reference became available to everyone? > > > Bret Cahill > >It's not likely that there is a reference. Regardless of the denigration of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, the aphorism "The market can stay crazy longer than you can stay solvent" still holds. -- Les Cargill
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
> > Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so > > they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for > > it. > > > Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin > > to a reference. �The more he integrates over time the more wealth he > > accumulates. > > > But supposing the reference became available to everyone? > > > Bret Cahill > > It's not likely that there is a reference. Regardless of > the denigration of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, > the aphorism "The market can stay crazy longer than > you can stay solvent" still holds.Buffet seems to still be solvent. Bret Cahill
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
Bret Cahill wrote:>>> Most have no reference, no way of telling the signal from the noise so >>> they can integrate their entire life away and have nothing to show for >>> it. >> >>> Anyone who consistently does better than the DJIA has something akin >>> to a reference. The more he integrates over time the more wealth he >>> accumulates. >> >>> But supposing the reference became available to everyone? >> >>> Bret Cahill >> >> It's not likely that there is a reference. Regardless of >> the denigration of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, >> the aphorism "The market can stay crazy longer than >> you can stay solvent" still holds. > > Buffet seems to still be solvent. > > > Bret Cahill > >http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_safety_%28financial%29 -- Les Cargill
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote: ...> Buffet seems to still be solvent.That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax. Jerry -- Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
Jerry Avins wrote:> > On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote: > > ... > > > Buffet seems to still be solvent. > > That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax.He doesn't pay enough postage for all that damn junk mail. It's no wonder the US post office is in trouble. Make people pay first class rates for junk mail, and they would have plenty of cash. -- You can't have a sense of humor, if you have no sense.
Reply by ●September 23, 20112011-09-23
On Sep 23, 12:23�pm, Jerry Avins <j...@ieee.org> wrote:> On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote: > > � �... > > > Buffet seems to still be solvent. > > That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax. > > Jerry > -- > Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.If Buffet wanted to pay more tax, he could easily make a donation to reduce the public debt at the site below. But he doesn't choose to do that, he wants someone else to do it. https://www.pay.gov/paygov/forms/formInstance.html?agencyFormId=23779454 -Bill
Reply by ●September 24, 20112011-09-24
On 9/23/2011 9:30 PM, Bill Bowden wrote:> On Sep 23, 12:23 pm, Jerry Avins<j...@ieee.org> wrote: >> On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote: >> >> ... >> >>> Buffet seems to still be solvent. >> >> That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax. >> >> Jerry >> -- >> Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get. > > If Buffet wanted to pay more tax, he could easily make a donation to > reduce the public debt at the site below. But he doesn't choose to do > that, he wants someone else to do it.He wants to do it as part of a team. ... Jerry -- Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
Reply by ●September 24, 20112011-09-24
On 9/23/2011 6:07 PM, Michael A. Terrell wrote:> > Jerry Avins wrote: >> >> On 9/23/2011 2:16 PM, Bret Cahill wrote: >> >> ... >> >>> Buffet seems to still be solvent. >> >> That's because he thinks he doesn't pay enough tax. > > > He doesn't pay enough postage for all that damn junk mail. It's no > wonder the US post office is in trouble. Make people pay first class > rates for junk mail, and they would have plenty of cash.Does Buffet send much junk mail? Jerry -- Engineering is the art of making what you want from things you can get.
